Bitcoin lump-sum vs dollar-cost averaging: which won, 2018–2026?
Put the same $5,000 into Bitcoin as one lump sum vs spread weekly. Using real daily prices, lump-sum won in 6 of 7 start years — but DCA beat it when you started near a top (2022).
| Start year | Lump-sum value | DCA value | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $23,362 | $19,950 | Lump-sum |
| 2019 | $80,951 | $16,498 | Lump-sum |
| 2020 | $43,686 | $11,238 | Lump-sum |
| 2021 | $10,688 | $7,518 | Lump-sum |
| 2022 | $6,580 | $7,658 | DCA |
| 2023 | $18,906 | $6,233 | Lump-sum |
| 2024 | $7,107 | $4,081 | Lump-sum |
Method
For each start year we invest the same $5,000 two ways and hold to June 2026, using real daily closing prices (CryptoCompare histoday (free, public)): lump-sum buys it all on 1 January; DCA spreads it into equal weekly buys across the whole period. Lump-sum wins in a market that mostly rises (your money is deployed sooner) — which is why it leads in 6 of 7 years here. DCA wins when you'd otherwise have bought near a peak (2022), because the later buys catch the dip and lower your average price. Figures exclude fees and taxes and are not investment advice; past performance doesn't predict future results.
See also: what $10/week of Bitcoin DCA since 2015 is worth, or run your own numbers in the Bitcoin DCA calculator.