Bitcoin lump-sum vs dollar-cost averaging: which won, 2018–2026?
Put the same $5,000 into Bitcoin as one lump sum vs spread weekly. Using real daily prices, lump-sum won in 6 of 7 start years — but DCA beat it when you started near a top (2022).
| Start year | Lump-sum value | DCA value | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $29,619 | $24,742 | Lump-sum |
| 2019 | $102,632 | $20,436 | Lump-sum |
| 2020 | $55,387 | $13,944 | Lump-sum |
| 2021 | $13,550 | $9,379 | Lump-sum |
| 2022 | $8,342 | $9,500 | DCA |
| 2023 | $23,970 | $7,781 | Lump-sum |
| 2024 | $9,010 | $5,259 | Lump-sum |
Method
For each start year we invest the same $5,000 two ways and hold to September 2026, using real daily closing prices (CoinGecko via cryptotools.tech/api (recent) + CryptoCompare histoday (history)): lump-sum buys it all on 1 January; DCA spreads it into equal weekly buys. Lump-sum wins in a market that mostly rises (your money is deployed sooner); DCA wins when you'd otherwise have bought near a peak (2022), because the later buys catch the dip and lower your average price. Figures exclude fees and taxes and are not investment advice; past performance doesn't predict future results.
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